We checked the odds on all 216 Packy.gg packs: here is what they really pay

Every pack pays back about 90%

For each pack we multiplied every card's listed value by its chance of dropping and added it up. That gives the average value you get back per opening, the expected value. Divided by the pack price, it gives the return.

• 213 of the 216 packs return about 90% of their price in card value.
• That is the case from the $0.15 Trash pack up to the $1,309.29 Combat Ready pack.

On average, every $100 you open comes back as about $90 in cards, and Packy keeps about $10. A Charizard theme, a "Profit" name or a $1,000 price tag does not change that. The packs are built to the same margin.

What the 1%, 5%, 10% and 50/50 labels mean

If the average return is the same everywhere, what is different? How the 90% is spread out. Some packs give you a small loss almost every time. Others give you a near-worthless card almost every time and, very rarely, a huge one.

The labels on Packy's pack filter tell you which kind of pack you are looking at. The percentage is your chance to pull a card worth more than the pack.

"Typical pull" is the median: half of your openings land on that value or below it. On a 1% pack, the typical opening gives you back about 2.5 cents per dollar. All of the 90% sits in the 1% of openings that hit.

Across all 216 packs, a single opening beats the pack price 25% of the time. Three out of four openings lose.

The average pull is not the pull you will get

This is the part most people miss when they look at a pack's top card. Two examples:

• Pika Bang ($475.50). The top card is a PSA 9 Japanese XY Mario Pikachu worth $11,216.65. The most common card, with a 60% chance, is a Pikachu worth $0.22.
• Slab School ($402.80). Eight graded slabs from $626 to $7,183. And an 80% chance of Academy at Night, worth $0.13.

Both packs still return about 90% on average. But most openings are a near-total loss, paid for by the rare slab.

The wildest packs on Packy.gg

• Trash ($0.15). A 1 in 20,000 chance at a $306 Swampert ex. That is a 2,040x hit, the biggest multiplier on the site.
• 1% Charizard ($2.95). A 1 in 10,000 shot at a $3,419.40 Shining Charizard. The other 99% of the time you get a $0.01 card called "Chraziard".
• Heavy Hitters ($0.99). Five cards worth $600 to $1,100, including a PSA 9 Neo Destiny Shining Steelix, at odds between 1 in 20,000 and 1 in 100,000. 99% of openings give a $0.05 Grapploct.
• Woopsy ($301.61). A 1 in 100,000 chance at a PSA 10 1st Edition Dragonite worth $19,250.
• 50/50 PsyF*cked ($663.98). A literal coin flip: 50% for a $1,182 Psyduck promo, 50% for a $0.01 "Stinky Psyduck". Heads pays 1.78x.
• Supreme ($1,196.50). Home of the most valuable card on the site, a PSA 10 Plasma Storm Holo Lugia at $22,013.44. The odds are 1 in 303, which is good for a card that size. The other 80% of openings give a $64.55 Alakazam.
• 5% Blazing Light ($213.65). A 1 in 10,000 shot at a CGC 9 Event Organizer Pikachu worth $21,511.21.

The packs that win most often

If you want to see green more often, two packs stand out:

• Reds Encounters ($82.51). 61.6% of openings beat the pack price. The typical pull is $83.99.
• Pack a Zard ($10.67). 60.2% of openings beat the pack price. The typical pull is $11.34.

The catch is in the same math. Because the average is still about 90%, these packs win often but win small. The chance to double your money is 0.7% on Reds Encounters and 2.2% on Pack a Zard. The losing 40% of openings are what pay for it.

The one pack to skip

10% Squirt ($67.39) returns 84%, well below the roughly 90% of every other pack on the site. Its top card is a PSA 10 1st Edition Spheal at $1,475. If you want a 10% pack, the other 17 in that group all return about 90%.

How to use this

Since the margin is the same on almost every pack, choose a pack for the ride you want, not because you think it has better odds:

• To make a budget last (for example while you climb the BANDITS leaderboard), pick a pack with a high chance to beat its price, like Reds Encounters or Pack a Zard. You will lose about the same on average, but your balance moves less.
• To chase a slab, the 1%, 5% and 10% packs are where the big multipliers are. Expect most openings to return a few cents.
• Open the pack page before you buy. Look at the most common card, not only the top card. That is what most of your openings will give you.

With code BANDITS, every pack opening counts in full on the $300 bi-weekly leaderboard, and the 10% lossback on a first deposit of $30 or more takes some of the sting out of a bad run. The code does not change any pack's odds. Sign up through packy.gg/r/bandits and the code is applied automatically.

How we did it

On 13 October 2026 we pulled the public pack contents for all 216 packs on Packy.gg. Each pack splits 1,000,000 tickets across its cards, and each card has a listed value. A card's chance is its ticket count divided by 1,000,000, and a pack's expected value is the sum of each card's value times its chance. We checked that every pack's tickets add up to exactly 1,000,000. They all do. Most packs came out just under 90% (88.9% on average), so we round to 90% in this article.

Two limits: we used the card values Packy lists in site balance, and what you get when you sell or cash out a card can be different. And packs, odds and card values change, so the pack page is always the final word.